It’s turning into yet another miserable season in Wrigleyville, with the Cubs seemingly competing only with the Houston Astros for the right to select first overall in the 2015 draft. Look deeper, though, and things don’t appear quite as bleak: Chicago’s run differential (-8 entering play Saturday) suggests they’re playing more like a .500 team. Two franchise cornerstones turned fan pinatas — Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro — are showing why the Cubs committed over $100 million in combined salary to lock them up through the end of the decade.
Rizzo and Castro both slogged through disappointing 2013 seasons, with the first baseman barely hitting at a league-average level (101 OPS+) and the shortstop taking a severe step back offensively (72 OPS+) after shining compared to his positional peers the previous three years (105 OPS+). In 2014, however, Rizzo ranks sixth among first basemen in park-and-league-adjusted OPS (138 OPS+), and Castro also ranks sixth among shortstops with a 119 OPS+.
Both are benefiting from better luck on balls in play this season (Rizzo’s BABIP has climbed from .258 in 2013 to .304 in 2014, and Castro from .290 to .316), but they have also made legitimate improvements at the plate that bode well for their long-term success. Rizzo’s taking a more disciplined, shift-proof approach, and Castro is once again showing power rarely seen for an up-the-middle player.
Rizzo is doing his best Joey Votto impression this season, boosting his walk rate (from 11% in 2013 to 16.4%) and cutting down on strikeouts (18.4% to 15.3%). He’s walking more than he’s whiffing in large part because he’s swinging at fewer pitches thrown off the plate. Rizzo’s chase rate was close to the league average last season (27.5%), but he’s going after junk pitches just 23.3% of the time this year. He has shown the biggest improvement versus pitches thrown inside: he chased 34.9% of inside stuff in 2013, but he’s doing so a mere 22.9% in 2014. In related news, Rizzo’s slugging percentage against inside pitches has spiked from .329 to .514.
Rizzo’s swing rate vs. inside pitches, 2013
Rizzo’s swing rate vs. inside pitches, 2014
And, as the Cardinals learned the hard way on May 15, the lefty-hitting Rizzo is doing his best to foil teams deploying infield shifts against him. Rizzo tapped two perfect bunts down the third base line versus St. Louis, forcing the Cards to play him straight-up during his next at-bat. Rizzo’s going to center and left field this season (62.1%, up from 57.6%), and he’s batting a cool .411 when putting the ball in play. He’s less shift-proof even when he does pull the ball, hitting fewer grounders to the right side this year (55.6%) than last (61.6%).
Castro, meanwhile, has popped six home runs and is slugging a career-best .475. Last year, he went yard just 10 times and slugged a career-worst .347. While Rizzo has rediscovered his form with patience and an all-fields approach, Castro has returned to his roots by swinging aggressively — but smartly — and lining pitches to the pull side.
Castro is swinging at about the same percentage of pitches this season as he did in 2013, but he’s taking a cut at better offerings. He’s swinging at more pitches thrown in the zone (64.5%, up from 62.9%) and fewer tossed off the plate (30.3%, compared to 31.6%). Swinging at strikes and taking junk pitches has allowed Castro to get into more favorable counts and tap into his considerable pop.
With pitchers more often at his mercy, Castro has increased his pull percentage to 40.3% from just 31.6% in 2013. As is the case with Rizzo, fewer of those pull shots are ending up in the dirt: Castro has decreased his ground ball rate on pulled pitches to 55.4% from 74.1% last year.
Castro’s spray chart, 2013
Castro’s spray chart, 2014
The Cubs’ wretched start has already torpedoed whatever slim playoff chance they might have had entering 2014, but Rizzo and Castro’s bounce back years are worth celebrating. When Chicago does eventually escape the bowels of the NL Central standings, these 24-year-olds will be anchoring the lineup.