With the July 31 trade deadline just five weeks away, the Jeff Samardzija rumors are running wild. Will the Cubs lock up their 29-year-old ace to a $100+ million contract extension, or will they deal him for a bounty of power arms to complement arguably the best collection of minor league hitting talent in the game? The answer to that question will have a profound impact on the North Siders’ future, but there’s another Cubs starting pitcher who should be attracting serious trade attention. And unlike Samardzija, this guy could be had at a relative bargain.
Essentially, the Cubs signed Jason Hammel this past winter in hopes of trading him. The 31-year-old righty has turned in some successful campaigns during his nine-year career, including a 2012 season in which he posted career bests in park-and-league-adjusted ERA (23 percent above average) and strikeouts (8.6 per nine). But Hammel was considered a scrap-heap sign by the time he reached free agency, having managed just an 82 ERA+ with 6.2 K/9 in 2013 while missing time late in the year with an elbow strain. Lacking promising young starters, the Cubs made a one-year, $6 million bet that they could rehabilitate Hammel and flip him to a contender for a profit at the trade deadline.
So far, that bet by Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer is paying off handsomely. Hammel has stayed healthy in 2014, tying his career high with 8.6 K/9 while establishing new personal bests in walks (1.9 BB/9), homers allowed (0.7 HR/9) and ERA+ (130). He’s actually whiffing more batters and walking fewer than Samardzija (8.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9). Hammel is enjoying a career year with a more simplified arsenal than in years past. Rather than relying upon a four-pitch mix to trick hitters, Hammel has turned to what may be the nastiest slider this side of Yu Darvish.
Hammel has typically thrown his curveball and changeup about ten percent of the time each in previous seasons, but he’s tossing those pitches just 8.6% of the time combined in 2014. Instead, he has ramped up the use of his slider from 20.8% in 2013 to 31.6% in 2014, the sixth-highest rate among qualified MLB starting pitchers this season. He’s not just using the pitch more often, though — he’s also using it for a different purpose. Hammel pounded the strike zone with his slider in 2013, throwing the pitch over the plate 55.5% of the time. In 2014, he’s deploying his slider as a chase pitch: just 42.1% of them have been located in the zone. Hitters haven’t been able to lay off Hammel’s slider, which has led to a big spike in Ks for the Cubs’ reclamation project.
Opponents are chasing Hammel’s slider out of the zone 36.3% of the time, up from 30.5% last year. Those extra hacks at mostly unhittable breaking balls have contributed to Hammel posting a 42% miss rate with his slider, which is tied with Darvish for ninth-highest among starters throwing the pitch at least 200 times. He’s already got 51 strikeouts with his slider, trailing only Darvish and Tyson Ross (60 apiece). Hammel induced swings and misses with his slider just 29% in 2013, below the 31.5% MLB average, and racked up 38 Ks all season.
Hammel’s opponent contact rate by pitch location vs. sliders, 2013
Hammel’s opponent contact rate by pitch location vs. sliders, 2014
Jason Hammel isn’t as sexy a trade target as Samardzija, and he admittedly doesn’t have The Shark’s stuff or track record of durability. That said, a savvy GM could pick up a quality mid-rotation starter in Hammel without surrendering multiple top-100 prospects in the process. Acquiring Samardzija requires altering a franchise’s long-term outlook and potentially depleting the farm system. Acquiring the Cubs’ other starting pitching trade chip comes with far fewer strings attached. As Hammel himself is finding out, sometimes simpler is better.